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Fishmeal Market Report - November 2008
Lower prices on the fishmeal market
In the third quarter of the year, fishmeal
production was characterized by very limited catches, normal feature for this
period of the year. However, the overall 2008 production was reportedly also
short on the corresponding 2007 level. This is creating some shortage on the
market, while the previous year had been characterized by over-supply and
declining prices.
The main market, China,
came back with strong buying interest, which led to relatively high prices in
the second quarter. China imported 170 000 tons of fish meal valued at US$
195 million in September 2008, more than 50% ahead of September 2007
imports.. The import in January-September 2008 thus reached 1.16 million
tonnes valued at US$ 1 188 million, up 42.8 % from the corresponding period
of 2007.
The new Peruvian anchovy season started on 15 November. As in the previous
year, 2 million tonnes quota were allocated for November and December. Results
from the research cruise indicate that landings will mostly consist of
adults. The lack of juveniles is creating concerns for the anchovy population
next year. Imarpe estimates that the spawning would
probably reach 50% of normal as it was delayed all the way into November. Because
of this worry, Imarpe took the unusual step to
monitor also the developments of the anchovy during the mackerel research
cruise later in November. Most seem to believe in a quota next year of about
5 million tonnes, which mirrors the 2008 fishing quota.
Lower production
Fishmeal production continued to decline in the course of the year. European
producers are getting close to the end of the fishing season,
therefore not much movement is experienced on the production side.
Peru
managed to export higher quantities in 2008, after the difficult 2007. This
recovery was caused by a strong Chinese market. In the first half of the
year, Peru
exported 860 000 tonnes, some 36% more than last year. China took the
lion’s share of this shipment, accounting for about
half of Peruvian fishmeal exports. In 2007, China had been
very reluctant to buy, as inventories had built up, at times reaching 200 000
tonnes. In 2008, however, these stocks had been used up, and the country came
back as an eager buyer. While the Chinese aquaculture industry experienced
some problems in the course of 2008 and the aquaculture feed production was
less present as an importer of fishmeal, the pork industry was growing
strongly. This was prompted by high prices of pork in the market.
The European fishmeal market continues very quiet. Buying interest was very
low, during the period of high prices. German imports were 84 000 tonnes in
the first half of 2008, some 30% less than in the same period of 2007. This
decline was caused by fewer exports from Peru.
Chile
exported less fishmeal in 2008. In the first half of the year, total exports
were 240 000 tonnes, a 10% decline from the same period of 2007. While China was
importing more Chilean fis
In the second half of 2008 fishmeal prices tended downward significantly and
fell below the US$ 1 000/tonne in November. Despite the strong demand in China,
fishmeal prices dropped quite a bit in the last quarter of the year, in line
with soybean and other protein meals.
Some downward movements in prices likely
The year 2009 is not expected to bring much increase in fishmeal production
worldwide; on the contrary, some declines can be forecast. Price developments
depend on the demand from China, as
already experienced in previous years. There are some indications that at
least in the opening months of the year this market will buy less, which
should lead to somewhat lower prices.
By Helga Josupeit
© FAO GLOBEFISH 2008
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