Groundfish Market Report - January 2009
Groundfish in good demand
Demand for groundfish products seems to be less
subject to the impact of the financial crisis worldwide. Surprisingly,
consumption is increasing, probably as a result of the health drive on groundfish species consumption. Surprisingly, groundfish catches are expected to go up in 2009, which
should keep the market well supplied.
Groundfish supply forecast to recover in
2009
Groundfish harvests are projected to recover
slightly in 2009, but reduced production of farmed fish will likely keep
pressure on the world’s
seafood supply. Supply of Alaska
pollock is expected to fall almost 11% in 2008, to
2.5 million tonnes, although projections for 2009 suggest it may recover
slightly to 2.58 million tonnes. The harvest of Alaska
pollock from the USA is set to fall
to just over one million tonnes, signalling a sharp decline of more than 32%
since 2005. In
contrast, Russian supplies of Alaska
pollock are expected to grow 4% in 2008 to 1.2
million tonnes. This positive trend for Russian Alaska pollack
will continue in 2009, with a rise of more than 8%, to 1.3 million tonnes.
Less groundfish on the US market
During January-September 2008, USA groundfish
imports fell by 9% compared to the analogous period of 2007, settling at 102
100 tonnes. The decline was due to decreased imports of both fillets (-8%)
and blocks (-12%) during this period. The top three groundfish
fillet importers to the USA
were responsible for this drop: China
(-4%, 54 400 tonnes), Iceland
(-33%, 5 800 tonnes) and Canada
(-8%, 3 300 tonnes). China
was also behind the lower US Alaska pollack imports
of groundfish blocks. This country shipped 13% less
product to the USA during
the January-September 2008 period compared to the previous year, though
remaining the top supplier of groundfish products
to the US
market. Argentina is the second main provider of groundfish
blocks to the US market; the country managed to take advantage of the limited
Alaska pollack availability and increased its hake
exports by 61% to 5 800 tonnes in the first nine months of the year.
Groundfish block prices on the US market
show different developments. Cod block prices which have been stable at USD
2.58/lb since spring, experienced a drop (to USD 2.50/lb) in December 2008. Alaska
Pollack blocks show the opposite trend, an increase in price in December 2008
from USD 1.93/lb (stable since June 2008) to USD 2.00/lb. The decline in hake
block prices started a few months earlier than for cod. In September 2008
they were around USD 1.83/lb sliding down to USD 1.81/lb in December 2008.
Demand good for groundfish
products
All these forecast and production figures together indicate a rather gloomy
supply situation, while demand is expected to be quite good, especially for
the lower priced groundfish species. In December
2008, prices of Alaska
pollack increased sharply. This species is the
trend setter for price developments in the US market, thus further price
increases are likely in the near future.
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