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Salmon - May 2007
Salmon continues to bring profits to producers in 2006
2006 was again an excellent year for farmed salmon producers; demand was good
in most markets but the real explanation can be found on the supply side with
only a modest increase in total farmed salmon production. Norway
continues to be the world’s largest salmon producer
with increased production and export volumes and values in 2006. Chile, the
second largest producer, suffered from production problems throughout the
year and saw actual salmon production slightly reduced compared with 2005. The
overall effect though caused by Chile’s lack of
supply growth, had a beneficial impact on world salmon prices. Although the
major benefits were reaped by the Norwegians who saw both volumes and prices
increase, the Chileans have no strong grounds for complaints; export values
topped US$ 2.2 billion in 2006, up 28% over 2005.
The outlook for 2007 remains good for producers. Norway’s
production is estimated to increase somewhat whereas Chile’s
output will be moderate, depending on whether the recurring production problems
will be brought under control. Overall, salmon supply can be expected to
increase around 5% which should be adequate to satisfy the long-term increase
in demand.
Norway:
a record year
Norway’s production and exports of salmon rose in
2006. Exports volumes (in round weight equivalents) rose 4.4 % over 2005 but
export values in NOK increased by a massive 26%. Average export prices per
kilo rose from NOK 24.69 in 2005 to NOK 29.82/kg in 2006.
Norway’s largest market is the EU with 75% of
sales, followed by Russia
at 6.3% and Japan
at 4.9%. Others Asian markets such as Republic of Korea and China are
still small but growing quickly with annual growth rates in sales of around
50%.
The bulk of Norway’s salmon exports are fresh,
which is natural given the vicinity to the EU and Russian markets, but
improved logistics allows fresh shipments by air to other markets as well,
including Asia.
Chile: production problems limit supply
In 2006, for the fist time in many years, Chile’s
production of Atlantic salmon registered a decline, dropping slightly from
379 000 tonnes in 2005 to 370 000 tonnes in 2006. The country’s
production of Pacific salmon, virtually all Coho was stable at 115 000
tonnes. whereas the country’s
trout production showed a significant increase.
The main reason for the lack of growth is recurring production problems which
have been exerbated by the strong concentration of
the industry in one or two regions. Whereas this may have undoubted in terms
of streamlining of operations and resulting cost reductions, it also makes
the industry more vulnerable.
In terms of exports, Atlantic salmon reached 213 000 tonnes, a reduction of
7% from 2005. (229 000 t). Trout exports grew from 75 000 to 93 000 tonnes
whereas Coho increased slightly from 78 800 tonnes in 2005 to 79 400 tonnes
in 2006.
Export figures for the same species were US$1.417 billion (2005: US$ 1.079
billion); US$ 481 million (US$ 352 million) and US$ 298 million (US$ 284
million).
The USA
became Chile’s principal export market in 2006 with
36% of total salmon and trout export values, overtaking Japan which
represented 32%. The EU showed good growth mostly as a market for frozen
products such as fillets with Germany taking
52% of the EU’s total imports from Chile. Neighbouring
countries in South America
continue to be a growing market for Chilean exports reaching 7% of the total
in 2006 with Brazil
showing great potential, almost doubling its imports from Chile reaching
US$ 89 million in 2006.
Other producers
Although the combined total production volume of other salmon producing
countries such as the United Kingdom, Canada and Ireland now reach more than
250 000 tonnes annually, they remain regional players. The UK and Ireland focus on
the EU markets whereas Canada exports
most of its production to the USA. At the
same time, the large international salmon companies own production facilities
in all of these countries and may even represent the majority of production
taking place there. In this way, these three countries, even though they are
individually rather small, by being part of larger production systems they
can by now be considered fully integrated into the global supply chain.
EU, Japan and USA main markets
As for most other fish and fishery products “the three big” dominate salmon
imports as well; the EU, Japan and the USA.
The long-term growth potential is positive for the EU and for the USA whereas
the long-term trend of negative growth for seafood sales overall in Japan is
dampening further potential growth there. Alternative markets such as Russia, Brazil, and a
number of countries in Asia
are showing promising growth and will take on added importance in the future.
India
for example which today hardly imports any salmon at all could develop long term
into an important destination for salmon exports.
China
is also sailing up as an important importer of salmon from all sources, both
for processing and re-exports and increasingly as a market for domestic
consumption as well.
EU demand trend positive
Demand for Atlantic salmon in the EU market continued to grow in 2006;
volumes were up about 3% compared to 2005, despite the high prices. The
underlying trend in consumption is positive.
The French market is the largest consumer of salmon in Europe with imports from all major
suppliers: Norway,
Chile,
the UK,
Ireland,
US and Canada.
Import volumes have been steadily increasing to the present 125 000 tonnes
with just over 70% in the fresh form sourced of course from European salmon
producers. The fresh segment however is in decline, down from 78% in 2003,
with frozen products increasing steadily.
The German market has developed into one of the most important of the EU with
now more than 100 000 tonnes imported per year. Fresh salmon represent almost
50% of imports but are now declining to the benefit of frozen fillets in
particular. Norway
supplies virtually all the fresh salmon whereas Chile has
become the principal supplier of frozen salmon products. China is also
sailing up as an important processor of salmon products for the German market
almost doubling its shipments in 2006 to 8300 tonnes.
Of interest is also the increase in smoked salmon supplies into the German
market, from less than 8 000 tonnes in 2003 to 16 500 tonnes in 2006. Poland is by
far the dominant supplier with 83%. This is largely as a result of the
outsourcing of the Danish smoking industry to Poland over the
last few years.
US growing
Total salmon imports into the USA grew a
modest 10 000 tons from 233 000 tonnes in 2005 to 243 000 tonnes in 2006. Imports
values showed a more impressive increase rising a significant 30% compared to
2005. Fresh fillets continue to represent a major part of imports with the
bulk coming from Chile,
although total fresh import volumes fell in 2006. Values were up however,
given the higher salmon prices in 2006. Of particular interest is the rise in
salmon imports from China
which grew from 19 000 tonnes in 2005 to 26 000 tonnes. in
2006. Import values almost doubled from US$ 56 million to US$ 98 million in
the same period. Of notice is also the fact that US salmon exports to China
increased from 30,600 to 39 000 tonnes, with export values rising from US$ 77
million in 2005 to 115 million in 2006.
Japan
continues to be a major market for both wild and farmed salmon. It is
somewhat particular compared to the EU and US markets as it imports and
consumes large volumes of both Atlantic salmon from Chile and Norway, trout
from Chile
and Norway
and Coho from Chile.
Japan’s imports of Atlantic salmon declined somewhat in 2006 to 24 800
tonnes, possibly as a result of the higher prices. However, overall salmon
imports were also down, with Pacific salmon imports falling as well to 82,900
tonnes. This disturbing trend is worrying producers but part of a decline in
overall seafood consumption leading also lead to lower salmon imports. The
reason for the decline is not directly related to seafood itself but to a
shift in overall Japanese food consumption patterns which are becoming more
similar to international consumption, In Japan’s case, this means more meat
consumption and reduced fish purchases, the opposite of in most other markets
where seafood consumption is still growing.
© FAO GLOBEFISH 2007
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