The supply situation is stable, with an expected slight (+2-3%) increase in supplies in 2016. However, there may be an oversupply of pollock, resulting in some pressure on prices. Overall, trade flows will undergo some shifts in 2016, as more processing of raw material from Europe and North America will be shipped to Viet Nam instead of China.

Total supplies of groundfish will increase by just over 3% to reach 7.27 million tonnes in 2016, according to estimates presented at the North Atlantic Seafood Forum in March. Supplies of Atlantic cod are forecasted to be about the same as in 2015, while there will be slight increases for pollock, haddock and saithe. Various types of hake will also increase marginally, while supplies of hoki will decline by 3%.

In terms of management measures, scientists have recommended a 14% reduction in the 2017 pollock TAC in Russia, which means a TAC for industrial vessels of 1.3 million tonnes. Russian cod supplies in 2016 will remain stable at just under 900 000 tonnes.
For the southern African hake fishery, the outlook for 2016 is optimistic. After three years of slight declines in total landings, a slight increase in production is forecasted for 2016. Estimates by the main South African company Irvin & Johnson indicate that South African production will remain level at 148 000 tonnes, while Namibian landings are expected to increase slightly from 140 000 tonnes in 2015 to 145 000 tonnes in 2016.

The Norwegian skrei (spring cod) fishery, which runs from January until April each year, started slowly this year, but picked up quickly in February and early March. The slow start in the beginning of the year was partially due to the fact that the spawners were somewhat slow in reaching the Lofoten and Vesterålen regions in North Norway, and also due to poor weather, as most skrei fishing is done by small coastal vessels. Fishers report strong catches of high quality, large fish, with such good volumes landed that prices for smaller sizes were higher than their larger counterparts in mid-March. In general, prices for Norwegian fresh cod are high at the moment, and demand for this high-quality fish is very good in Europe.